Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 25 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Valerenga to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Valerenga and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 61% and Valerenga 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 74% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.01 xG and Valerenga 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.151 / defence 0.800 | Valerenga attack 0.849 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Data: 51 Bodo/Glimt games / 51 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 14%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Valerenga 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Valerenga 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.01 / Valerenga 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.151 / def 0.800 | Valerenga attack 0.849 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Valerenga xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 62% chance of winning, Valerenga a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Record (4 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
62%
1.63
25%
4.05
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.89
0.89
Valerenga xG
1.63
62%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
53.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.89 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 39W 8D 4L from 51 games, a 2.45 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 10L across 51 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 21W 3D 1L from 25 games — 2.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 8W 8D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.67 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Valerenga in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 39W 8D 4L in their last 51 games (2.45 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 22W 19D 10L in their last 51 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Valerenga away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.64 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valerenga in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Valerenga have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 52%, Valerenga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Bodo/Glimt and 48% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 60% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 48% of Valerenga's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Bodo/Glimt and Valerenga drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.01 xG and Valerenga 0.89 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.15 / defence 0.80 against Valerenga attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 25% | Valerenga 14%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 74%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valerenga's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.