Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Stabaek travel to Kristiansund Stadion to take on Kristiansund BK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kristiansund BK have posted 7W 1D 2L at Kristiansund Stadion — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kristiansund Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Kristiansund BK are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kristiansund BK, 1 for Stabaek and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 5–1 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stabaek in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 64% and Stabaek 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 57% | Stabaek 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.50 xG and Stabaek 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.094 / defence 0.760 | Stabaek attack 1.080 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.226. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kristiansund BK's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Kristiansund BK games / 47 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 68% | Draw 20% | Stabaek 12%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Stabaek 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.50 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 40% | Stabaek 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 68% | Draw 20% | Stabaek 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.50 / Stabaek 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.094 / def 0.760 | Stabaek attack 1.080 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stabaek xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 68% chance of winning, Stabaek a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
Record (3 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kristiansund BK's attack rating (1.09) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
68%
1.46
20%
5.07
12%
8.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.51
1.01
Stabaek xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
8.48
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
8%
12.21
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
1%
103.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.01 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 21W 14D 12L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 12W 16D 19L from 47 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.96 PPG from 24 outings (14W 5D 5L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 5W 8D 11L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.34 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 21W 14D 12L in their last 47 games (1.64 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Stabaek away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.96 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Kristiansund BK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
1
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Stabaek have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kristiansund BK at 62%, Stabaek at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Kristiansund BK and 75% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kristiansund BK's games and 71% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 75% of Stabaek's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Stabaek tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kristiansund BK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.50 xG and Stabaek 1.01 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kristiansund BK fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.09 / defence 0.76 against Stabaek attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 68% | Draw 20% | Stabaek 12%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 57%, Stabaek 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.