Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 37%, yet in-form Lillestrom provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lillestrom are 0.90 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Lillestrom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Lillestrom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 45% versus Lillestrom 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 45% | Lillestrom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 xG and Lillestrom 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.895 / defence 0.887 | Lillestrom attack 1.198 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.331. Data: 50 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 20 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 37% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 33%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Lillestrom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lillestrom (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 37% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 / Lillestrom 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.895 / def 0.887 | Lillestrom attack 1.198 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Lillestrom xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 37% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.20x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.38
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.92
1.41
Lillestrom xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.41 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 5D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.80 points per game from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.60 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 70%.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Lillestrom away?
Lillestrom's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.30 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Lillestrom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lillestrom 4-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 40%, Lillestrom 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 70% (Lillestrom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 80% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 70% of Lillestrom's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Lillestrom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Lillestrom 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.51 xG and Lillestrom 1.41 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.90 / defence 0.89 against Lillestrom attack 1.20 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 37% | Draw 30% | Lillestrom 33%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 45%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Lillestrom's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.