Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 1.40 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Haugesund, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 53% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 62% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.11 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.008 / defence 0.965 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.801 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.226. Data: 47 Haugesund games / 47 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 62% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 62% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Haugesund 2.11 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.008 / def 0.965 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.801 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 62% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 1 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (1.01) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
62%
1.60
24%
4.25
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.06
0.95
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
2%
58.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.95 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 18W 10D 19L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 13W 13D 21L from 47 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.36 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.74 PPG from 23 outings (12W 4D 7L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 6D 13L from 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 18W 10D 19L in their last 47 games (1.36 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 13W 13D 21L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Haugesund's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.74 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
3
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 48%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Haugesund) and 44% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 26% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Haugesund's recent matches and 52% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Haugesund's recent games and 44% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.11 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.95 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 62% | Draw 24% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 14%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 62%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.36 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.