Brann 2-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host ODD Ballklubb at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's home record at Brann Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Brann carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brann, 3 for ODD Ballklubb and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 58% versus ODD Ballklubb 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 58% | ODD Ballklubb 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.23 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.058 / defence 0.944 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.961 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.362. Data: 26 Brann games / 56 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 60% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 20%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | ODD Ballklubb 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Brann (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
ODD Ballklubb lead the H2H ledger, but Brann carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | ODD Ballklubb 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 60% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Brann 2.23 / ODD Ballklubb 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.058 / def 0.944 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.961 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Brann (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.24
ODD Ballklubb xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Brann vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Brann 2 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Brann vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 60% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Brann and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (5 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 3W.
What form are Brann and ODD Ballklubb in?
Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brann's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
60%
1.67
20%
5.04
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Brann xG
Total xG
3.46
1.24
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
2%
45.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Brann and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Brann and 1.24 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Brann have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 16W 4D 6L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 9W 7D 10L from 26 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ODD Ballklubb.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brann have posted 2.46 PPG from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 3W 3D 7L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: ODD Ballklubb in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 16W 4D 6L in their last 26 games (2.00 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Brann's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.46 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Brann or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brann go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Brann
1
Draws
3
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-3 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and ODD Ballklubb?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 62%, ODD Ballklubb 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Brann and 62% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Brann's games and 54% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Brann's matches and 62% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Brann and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out ODD Ballklubb 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat ODD Ballklubb 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.23 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.24 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 60% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 20%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 58%, ODD Ballklubb 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.