Ham-Kam 3-0 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ham-Kam's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Viking's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Viking have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Viking edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Ham-Kam 3–7 Viking — a Viking win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 59% and Viking 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 59% | Viking 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ham-Kam surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.27 xG and Viking 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.850 / defence 1.182 | Viking attack 0.947 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.821 / away 1.377. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 56 games and Viking's last 56.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 25% | Viking 44%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.18 | Draw 4.00 | Viking 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 50% (last 10 home games) | Viking 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 27 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 25% | Viking 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Ham-Kam 1.27 / Viking 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.850 / def 1.182 | Viking attack 0.947 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.821 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Viking (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Viking xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking FAQs
What time does Ham-Kam vs Viking kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Ham-Kam 3 - 0 Viking.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Viking part of?
Ham-Kam vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 27) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 31% chance of winning, Viking a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ham-Kam and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ham-Kam vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.95x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Ham-Kam's last 56 games and Viking's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
31%
3.18
25%
4.00
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.81
1.54
Viking xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
7%
14.87
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.54 for Viking, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 14W 16D 26L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 25W 12D 19L from 56 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 28 home games (9W 9D 10L).
On the road, Viking have gone 11W 5D 12L from their last 28 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.82 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 70%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Viking
Blended
Ham-Kam (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ham-Kam
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 14W 16D 26L in their last 56 games (1.04 PPG), while Viking have gone 25W 12D 19L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.29 PPG; Viking away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 7-3 Ham-Kam on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ham-Kam have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Ham-Kam 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 50%, Viking 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 64% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ham-Kam and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ham-Kam's games and 71% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ham-Kam and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 64% of Viking's.
Do Ham-Kam and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 68% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Viking 3-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.27 xG and Viking 1.54 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Viking attack 0.95 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 25% | Viking 44%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 59%, Viking 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Viking's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Ham-Kam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.