Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 30 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lillestrom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Bodo/Glimt have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Lillestrom managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The historical record gives Bodo/Glimt a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 67% and Lillestrom 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Lillestrom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.31 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.355 / defence 1.086 | Lillestrom attack 0.855 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.824 / away 1.353. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Bodo/Glimt games / 55 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 61% | Draw 19% | Lillestrom 20%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | Lillestrom 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Lillestrom 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 30 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 61% | Draw 19% | Lillestrom 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.31 / Lillestrom 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.355 / def 1.086 | Lillestrom attack 0.855 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.824 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lillestrom xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 30 October 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt 3 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 61% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Record (5 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 4W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.35) and Lillestrom's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.85x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
61%
1.64
19%
5.18
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.57
1.26
Lillestrom xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
10%
10.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
2%
50.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.26 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 36W 10D 9L from 55 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 28W 8D 19L across 55 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 17W 8D 2L from 27 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 11W 6D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.76 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.67 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 10D 9L in their last 55 games (2.15 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 28W 8D 19L in their last 55 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Lillestrom away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.19 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 0-5 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Lillestrom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 67%, Lillestrom 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Bodo/Glimt and 63% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 63% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 63% of Lillestrom's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Lillestrom 3-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.31 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.35 / defence 1.09 against Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 61% | Draw 19% | Lillestrom 20%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 73%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Lillestrom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.