Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Valerenga travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 October 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 1.30 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Valerenga and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2021, ended 1–4 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Valerenga trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% versus Valerenga 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% | Valerenga 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.59 xG and Valerenga 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.923 / defence 0.925 | Valerenga attack 0.976 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.220. Data: 53 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 53 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 24%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Valerenga 4.17. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.59 / Valerenga 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.923 / def 0.925 | Valerenga attack 0.976 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Valerenga xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 46% chance of winning, Valerenga a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Record (2 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.92) and Valerenga's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.31
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.69
1.10
Valerenga xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
5%
20.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.10 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 13D 25L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga's form line: 23W 20D 10L from 53 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 8W 9D 9L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.68 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 70%.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 23W 20D 10L in their last 53 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Valerenga away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.42 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Valerenga in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Valerenga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 38%, Valerenga 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 50% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 62% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 50% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Valerenga 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Valerenga 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.59 xG and Valerenga 1.10 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Valerenga attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 46% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 24%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 49%, Valerenga 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Valerenga's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.