Rosenborg vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 47%, yet in-form Valerenga provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rosenborg vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Valerenga at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Valerenga have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Valerenga are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 0, Valerenga 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2020, ended 0–1 with Valerenga winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Valerenga in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 53% versus Valerenga 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 63% | Valerenga 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.76 xG and Valerenga 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.057 / defence 0.958 | Valerenga attack 0.997 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Rosenborg games / 30 Valerenga games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 47% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 27%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Valerenga 3.70. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valerenga (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 47% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Rosenborg 1.76 / Valerenga 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.057 / def 0.958 | Valerenga attack 0.997 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Valerenga xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Valerenga kick off?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Valerenga part of?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 47% chance of winning, Valerenga a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rosenborg and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 0 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.88
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.05
1.29
Valerenga xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
5%
21.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.29 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 15W 7D 8L from 30 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 5L across 30 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.73 PPG, Valerenga on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 10W 3D 2L from 15 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Valerenga's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Valerenga away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valerenga in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
2
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Valerenga have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 67%, Valerenga 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 47% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valerenga in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 47% of Valerenga's.
Do Rosenborg and Valerenga tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Valerenga finished level at 0-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.76 xG and Valerenga 1.29 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Valerenga attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 47% | Draw 26% | Valerenga 27%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, Valerenga 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.73 PPG, Valerenga 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.