Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 16 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome ODD Ballklubb to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 1.50 (ODD Ballklubb). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0 for ODD Ballklubb and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% versus ODD Ballklubb 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% | ODD Ballklubb 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.614 / defence 0.805 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.015 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.116. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 41 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 35% | ODD Ballklubb 27%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | ODD Ballklubb 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | ODD Ballklubb 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 35% | ODD Ballklubb 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 / ODD Ballklubb 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.614 / def 0.805 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.015 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.91
ODD Ballklubb xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 39% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.61x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
39%
2.58
35%
2.88
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.06
0.91
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.91 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 11D 19L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 17W 8D 16L from 41 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.07 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.63 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 17W 8D 16L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.30 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
5
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 30%, ODD Ballklubb 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 55% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 40% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 55% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 55% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.15 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.91 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.61 / defence 0.81 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 35% | ODD Ballklubb 27%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, ODD Ballklubb 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.