Sandefjord vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sandefjord welcome Rosenborg to Sandefjord Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 30 June 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Sandefjord Arena, Sandefjord have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.40 (Rosenborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 47% versus Rosenborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 50% | Rosenborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.38 xG and Rosenborg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.871 / defence 1.192 | Rosenborg attack 0.955 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Data: 37 Sandefjord games / 40 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 37% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Rosenborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 50% | Rosenborg 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 37% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandefjord 1.38 / Rosenborg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.871 / def 1.192 | Rosenborg attack 0.955 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Rosenborg xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg part of?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 37% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandefjord and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.87x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
37%
2.74
29%
3.49
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.72
1.34
Rosenborg xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.34 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 8L across 30 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 3W 7D 5L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Rosenborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sandefjord) and 53% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rosenborg in 33%; Sandefjord have failed to score in 47% of games; Rosenborg in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 40% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sandefjord's recent games and 53% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Sandefjord and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.38 xG and Rosenborg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Rosenborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 37% | Draw 29% | Rosenborg 35%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.