ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 44%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 June 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 1–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 57% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 63% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.40 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.100 / defence 0.793 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.109 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. ODD Ballklubb's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 ODD Ballklubb games / 41 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 26%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Bodo/Glimt 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 44% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.40 / Bodo/Glimt 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.100 / def 0.793 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.109 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bodo/Glimt xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 44% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (3 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.10x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.34
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.04 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 13W 4D 13L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 3D 1L across 30 games — 2.70 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 8W 2D 5L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 11W 3D 1L across 15 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.73 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 67%, Bodo/Glimt at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.40 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.10 / defence 0.79 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.11 / defence 0.76, drawn from 38/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 44% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 26%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 63%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.