Ham-Kam 2-1 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs jerv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
jerv make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
jerv's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 3.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, jerv have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Ham-Kam, 0.30 for jerv — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ham-Kam lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Ham-Kam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
jerv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 70% versus jerv 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 48% | jerv 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.76 xG and jerv 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.636 / defence 0.922 | jerv attack 0.811 / defence 1.532. League average goals — home 1.809 / away 1.384. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.636 is below the league average — the 1.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.532 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Ham-Kam games / 23 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 54% | Draw 23% | jerv 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | jerv 4.55. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 50% | jerv 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 54% | Draw 23% | jerv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Ham-Kam 1.76 / jerv 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.636 / def 0.922 | jerv attack 0.811 / def 1.532 | league avg home 1.809 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.03
jerv xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs jerv kick off?
Ham-Kam vs jerv kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs jerv?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 jerv.
Where is Ham-Kam vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs jerv part of?
Ham-Kam vs jerv is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 54% chance of winning, jerv a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ham-Kam and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and jerv?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 0 | jerv 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and jerv in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. jerv (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against jerv's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — jerv's attack (0.81x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.27
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.80
1.03
jerv xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
4%
26.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.03 for jerv, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs jerv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ham-Kam come into this having played 23 games, going 4W 11D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, jerv sit at 0.61 PPG from 23 outings (4W 2D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Ham-Kam against 0.61 for jerv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ham-Kam's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, jerv have taken 0.09 points per game from 11 outings (0W 1D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 0.87 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and jerv in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 4W 11D 8L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while jerv have gone 4W 2D 17L in their last 23 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or jerv away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.18 PPG; jerv away: 0.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
0
Draws
0
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, jerv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2022, when Ham-Kam 2-1 jerv.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and jerv?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
jerv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 46%, jerv 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ham-Kam) and 82% (jerv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 9% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 36% of games; jerv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play jerv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 54% of jerv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Ham-Kam's matches and 82% of jerv's.
Do Ham-Kam and jerv tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, jerv in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out jerv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat jerv 2-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.76 xG and jerv 1.03 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.64 / defence 0.92 against jerv attack 0.81 / defence 1.53, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 54% | Draw 23% | jerv 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, jerv 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
jerv's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.00 PPG, jerv 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. jerv (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.