Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rosenborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% versus Rosenborg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.54 xG and Rosenborg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.897 / defence 0.733 | Rosenborg attack 1.058 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.874 / away 1.293. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 48 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 22%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Rosenborg 4.55. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 30% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.54 / Rosenborg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.897 / def 0.733 | Rosenborg attack 1.058 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.874 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rosenborg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 47% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.06x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.30
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.54
1.00
Rosenborg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.00 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 48 games, going 13W 13D 22L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 48 outings (24W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 9W 7D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.81 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 24W 11D 13L in their last 48 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Rosenborg away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.42 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Rosenborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, Rosenborg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 62% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games; Rosenborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 58% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 62% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.54 xG and Rosenborg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.90 / defence 0.73 against Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 22%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Rosenborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 44%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.