Tromso vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Tromso welcome Haugesund to Alfheim Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 1W 4D 5L at Alfheim Stadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Alfheim Stadion this season.
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tromso at 1.20 PPG versus Haugesund's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tromso register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Haugesund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Tromso, 1 for Haugesund and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Tromso winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tromso trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Haugesund trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 59% versus Haugesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 59% | Haugesund 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.65 xG and Haugesund 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.773 / defence 1.158 | Haugesund attack 1.047 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Tromso's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Tromso games / 52 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 39% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 33%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Haugesund 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 70% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 39% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Tromso 1.65 / Haugesund 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.773 / def 1.158 | Haugesund attack 1.047 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Tromso (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Haugesund xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Haugesund kick off?
Tromso vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
Where is Tromso vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Haugesund part of?
Tromso vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 39% chance of winning, Haugesund a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Tromso and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Tromso 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in?
Tromso (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tromso's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.58
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Tromso xG
Total xG
3.16
1.51
Haugesund xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
6%
15.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Tromso and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Tromso and 1.51 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tromso come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 7D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tromso's home form reads 1W 4D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Tromso are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.77 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 9W 4D 9L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Haugesund away?
Tromso's home record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 0.70 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Tromso or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Haugesund in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tromso's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Tromso
1
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 5, Haugesund have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Haugesund?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tromso at 70%, Haugesund at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tromso) and 60% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Tromso's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Tromso's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Tromso and Haugesund tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.65 xG and Haugesund 1.51 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Haugesund attack 1.05 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 39% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 33%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 59%, Haugesund 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.