KFUM Oslo 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to KFUM Oslo versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.45 xG and Ham-Kam 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Ham-Kam attack 0.948 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.457. Data: 0 KFUM Oslo games / 30 Ham-Kam games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 35% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 41%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 35% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.45 / Ham-Kam 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Ham-Kam attack 0.948 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Ham-Kam xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
KFUM Oslo 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 35% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Ham-Kam away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from KFUM Oslo's attack rating (0.85) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.95x) against KFUM Oslo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
35%
2.86
24%
4.16
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
3.04
1.59
Ham-Kam xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
7%
13.99
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.59 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KFUM Oslo have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
3
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 4-0 KFUM Oslo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam finished level at 1-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.45 xG and Ham-Kam 1.59 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Ham-Kam attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 35% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 41%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.