Mjondalen vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Valerenga (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mjondalen face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valerenga make the trip to Consto Arena to face Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjondalen have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Consto Arena, Mjondalen have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Valerenga's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Valerenga are 0.90 PPG clear of Mjondalen in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mjondalen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Valerenga in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mjondalen, 2 for Valerenga and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 50% and Valerenga 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 46% | Valerenga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.37 xG and Valerenga 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.851 / defence 1.089 | Valerenga attack 1.127 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.242. Data: 44 Mjondalen games / 44 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 31% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 38%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Valerenga 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 60% | Valerenga 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 31% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Mjondalen 1.37 / Valerenga 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.851 / def 1.089 | Valerenga attack 1.127 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Valerenga xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Valerenga kick off?
Mjondalen vs Valerenga kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Consto Arena.
Where is Mjondalen vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Valerenga part of?
Mjondalen vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 31% chance of winning, Valerenga a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Mjondalen and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Valerenga?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Valerenga in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.85) and Valerenga's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valerenga's attack (1.13x) against Mjondalen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.29
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.89
1.52
Valerenga xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
7%
14.63
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.52 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjondalen come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 8D 25L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.73 PPG from 44 outings (20W 16D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mjondalen's home form reads 7W 3D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Valerenga have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjondalen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.73 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 70%.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 8D 25L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 20W 16D 8L in their last 44 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.09 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-1 on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valerenga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Valerenga?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Valerenga have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Valerenga 2-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 46%, Valerenga 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjondalen) and 50% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Valerenga in 32%; Mjondalen have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 64% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjondalen's recent games and 50% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Valerenga tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjondalen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen and Valerenga finished level at 0-0 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.37 xG and Valerenga 1.52 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Valerenga attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 31% | Draw 30% | Valerenga 38%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 46%, Valerenga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.