Mjondalen 1-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Rosenborg at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 4W 3D 3L at Consto Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mjondalen are significantly better at Consto Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rosenborg are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mjondalen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rosenborg in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mjondalen have won 0, Rosenborg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2020, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 50% versus Rosenborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 46% | Rosenborg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.41 xG and Rosenborg 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.832 / defence 1.099 | Rosenborg attack 1.120 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.230. Data: 44 Mjondalen games / 44 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 33% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 37%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Rosenborg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 60% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 33% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Mjondalen 1.41 / Rosenborg 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.832 / def 1.099 | Rosenborg attack 1.120 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Rosenborg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Rosenborg kick off?
Mjondalen vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Mjondalen 1 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg part of?
Mjondalen vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 33% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mjondalen and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Rosenborg in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjondalen's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
33%
3.06
30%
3.33
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.92
1.51
Rosenborg xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.51 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 11W 8D 25L from 44 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 12L across 44 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 7W 3D 12L from 22 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 11W 8D 25L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 21W 11D 12L in their last 44 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.09 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
0
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Rosenborg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Rosenborg 3-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 46%, Rosenborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjondalen) and 59% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 27% of games; Rosenborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 54% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjondalen's recent games and 59% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Mjondalen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Mjondalen 1-2 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.41 xG and Rosenborg 1.51 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Rosenborg attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 33% | Draw 30% | Rosenborg 37%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 46%, Rosenborg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.