Kristiansund BK 3-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kristiansund Stadion plays host to Kristiansund BK versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Kristiansund BK (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's home record at Kristiansund Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kristiansund Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Kristiansund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.60 for Haugesund. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Kristiansund BK 0W, Haugesund 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 0–3 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 65% versus Haugesund 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 58% | Haugesund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.22 xG and Haugesund 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.087 / defence 0.758 | Haugesund attack 1.127 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.269. Kristiansund BK's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Kristiansund BK games / 48 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 16%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kristiansund BK as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kristiansund BK 40% | Haugesund 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.22 / Haugesund 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.087 / def 0.758 | Haugesund attack 1.127 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Haugesund xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Kristiansund BK 3 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 61% chance of winning, Haugesund a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Kristiansund BK 0W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.09x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (1.13x) against Kristiansund BK's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.34
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.30
1.08
Haugesund xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
58.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.08 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 14D 12L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.40 PPG from 48 outings (19W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Kristiansund BK against 1.40 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.42 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 22W 14D 12L in their last 48 games (1.67 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Haugesund away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.96 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 3-0 on 20 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
3
Draws
5
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Haugesund have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Haugesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 62%, Haugesund 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kristiansund BK) and 58% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kristiansund BK's games and 58% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 58% of Haugesund's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Haugesund tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kristiansund BK edge out Haugesund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Haugesund 3-2 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.22 xG and Haugesund 1.08 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Haugesund outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.09 / defence 0.76 against Haugesund attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 16%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 58%, Haugesund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.67 PPG, Haugesund 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kristiansund BK win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.