Mjondalen 3-2 Sogndal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Sogndal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sogndal make the trip to Intility Arena to face Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Final. The match kicks off on Monday 28 December 2020 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Mjondalen (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Mjondalen's home record at Intility Arena: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Intility Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.21 xG and Sogndal 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.777 / defence 0.951 | Sogndal attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.383. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Mjondalen games / 0 Sogndal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 36% | Draw 32% | Sogndal 32%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Sogndal 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Sogndal | Competition: Eliteserien, Final | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Monday 28 Dec 2020, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 36% | Draw 32% | Sogndal 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjondalen 1.21 / Sogndal 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.777 / def 0.951 | Sogndal attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sogndal xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Sogndal kick off?
Mjondalen vs Sogndal kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 28 December 2020 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Sogndal?
Mjondalen 3 - 2 Sogndal.
Where is Mjondalen vs Sogndal being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Sogndal part of?
Mjondalen vs Sogndal is a Final fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Sogndal?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 36% chance of winning, Sogndal a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Sogndal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjondalen and Sogndal will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Sogndal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sogndal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjondalen and Sogndal in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Mjondalen home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.78x the league average against Sogndal's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sogndal's attack (0.85x) against Mjondalen's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
36%
2.76
32%
3.12
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.33
1.12
Sogndal xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Sogndal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Sogndal expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.12 for Sogndal, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Sogndal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Pre-Season
Sogndal
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 December 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Mjondalen
0
Draws
0
Sogndal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Sogndal?
From 1 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 1, Sogndal have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Sogndal last play each other?
They last met on 28 December 2020, when Mjondalen 3-2 Sogndal.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Sogndal?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Sogndal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Mjondalen edge out Sogndal 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjondalen beat Sogndal 3-2 at Intility Arena, Final, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.21 xG and Sogndal 1.12 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mjondalen beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sogndal outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.78 / defence 0.95 against Sogndal attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 36% | Draw 32% | Sogndal 32%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.