Tromso vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tromso vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Mjondalen travel to Alfheim Stadion to take on Tromso. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.50 xG and Mjondalen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Mjondalen attack 0.859 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 0 Tromso games / 30 Mjondalen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tromso 40% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 32%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Mjondalen 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tromso at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 40% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Tromso 1.50 / Mjondalen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Mjondalen attack 0.859 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Tromso (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mjondalen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Mjondalen kick off?
Tromso vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
Where is Tromso vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Mjondalen part of?
Tromso vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 40% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tromso and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tromso and Mjondalen in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Mjondalen away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tromso's attack rating (0.85) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Tromso's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.63
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.84
1.33
Mjondalen xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
7%
13.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tromso and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Tromso and 1.33 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Pre-Season
Mjondalen
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Tromso
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Mjondalen?
From 2 meetings on record, Tromso have won 2, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Tromso 1-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Mjondalen?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as Tromso and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.50 xG and Mjondalen 1.33 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Mjondalen attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 40% | Draw 28% | Mjondalen 32%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.