Brann vs Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Valerenga (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 15 as Brann welcome Valerenga to Brann Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Valerenga — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Valerenga's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Brann's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Valerenga have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Brann.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2021, ended 0–3 with Valerenga winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Valerenga have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Brann in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 67% and Valerenga 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Valerenga 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.24 xG and Valerenga 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.857 / defence 1.248 | Valerenga attack 1.218 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Valerenga have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Brann games / 42 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 25% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 48%. Fair-value odds: Brann 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Valerenga 2.08. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 25% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Brann 1.24 / Valerenga 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.857 / def 1.248 | Valerenga attack 1.218 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Valerenga xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Valerenga kick off?
Brann vs Valerenga kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Valerenga part of?
Brann vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 25% chance of winning, Valerenga a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Brann and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Valerenga?
Record (3 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Valerenga 3W.
What form are Brann and Valerenga in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Valerenga (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.86x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
25%
3.92
27%
3.77
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Brann xG
Total xG
2.99
1.75
Valerenga xG
3.92
25%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
17%
5.77
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
4%
22.62
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Brann and 1.75 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Brann have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 11D 21L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga's form line: 20W 15D 7L from 42 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brann have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 7W 7D 6L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.74 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Valerenga in 69%.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 10W 11D 21L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 20W 15D 7L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Valerenga away?
Valerenga's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.05 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2020, when Valerenga won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Brann
0
Draws
5
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Valerenga?
From 9 meetings on record, Brann have won 4, Valerenga have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Brann 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 80%, Valerenga at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Brann) and 50% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 65% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Brann's matches and 50% of Valerenga's.
Do Brann and Valerenga tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 15, as Brann and Valerenga drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.24 xG and Valerenga 1.75 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.86 / defence 1.25 against Valerenga attack 1.22 / defence 0.88, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 25% | Draw 27% | Valerenga 48%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Valerenga 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.