Rosenborg vs Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Haugesund travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rosenborg 1.70 PPG, Haugesund 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Rosenborg, 0 for Haugesund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 58% versus Haugesund 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 64% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.11 xG and Haugesund 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.973 / defence 0.926 | Haugesund attack 1.028 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.238. Data: 45 Rosenborg games / 45 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 57% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 19%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Haugesund 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 57% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Rosenborg 2.11 / Haugesund 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.973 / def 0.926 | Haugesund attack 1.028 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.819 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Haugesund xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Haugesund kick off?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Haugesund part of?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 57% chance of winning, Haugesund a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rosenborg and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (0.97) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.05
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.29
1.18
Haugesund xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
2%
44.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.18 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg come into this having played 45 games, going 22W 11D 12L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (17W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.71 PPG, Haugesund on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rosenborg's home form reads 14W 4D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 22W 11D 12L in their last 45 games (1.71 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Haugesund away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.09 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Rosenborg
3
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 6, Haugesund have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 59%, Haugesund 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Rosenborg and 54% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haugesund in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rosenborg's games and 54% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Rosenborg's matches and 54% of Haugesund's.
Do Rosenborg and Haugesund tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.11 xG and Haugesund 1.18 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Haugesund attack 1.03 / defence 1.19, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 57% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 19%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 64%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.71 PPG, Haugesund 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.