Brann vs Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Brann host Mjondalen at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brann's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Brann) versus 1.30 (Mjondalen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Brann have won 0, Mjondalen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2020, ended 0–2 with Mjondalen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 93% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 73% versus Mjondalen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.66 xG and Mjondalen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.940 / defence 0.996 | Mjondalen attack 0.866 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Brann games / 30 Mjondalen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 25%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Mjondalen 4.00. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Mjondalen 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Brann 1.66 / Mjondalen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.940 / def 0.996 | Mjondalen attack 0.866 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Brann (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mjondalen xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Mjondalen kick off?
Brann vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Brann Stadion.
Where is Brann vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Mjondalen part of?
Brann vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 48% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brann and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Mjondalen?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 2W.
What form are Brann and Mjondalen in?
Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.94x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.73
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Brann xG
Total xG
2.83
1.16
Mjondalen xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
5%
20.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Brann and 1.16 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 19L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.20 PPG, Mjondalen on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brann have managed 3W 5D 6L from 14 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 2W 2D 10L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mjondalen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Mjondalen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Mjondalen away?
Brann's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.00 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Brann's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Brann
2
Draws
2
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Brann have won 0, Mjondalen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2021, when Mjondalen 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Mjondalen?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 93%, Mjondalen at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Brann) and 43% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 93% of Brann's games and 50% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Brann's recent games and 43% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Brann and Mjondalen drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.66 xG and Mjondalen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Mjondalen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Mjondalen attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 48% | Draw 27% | Mjondalen 25%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.20 PPG, Mjondalen 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.