Brann 2-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rosenborg at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Rosenborg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Brann, 1 for Rosenborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2021, ended 2–3 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 71% and Rosenborg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 56% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.07 xG and Rosenborg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.795 / defence 1.202 | Rosenborg attack 1.015 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Brann's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rosenborg's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Brann games / 55 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 25% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 44%. Fair-value odds: Brann 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Rosenborg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 25% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Brann 1.07 / Rosenborg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.795 / def 1.202 | Rosenborg attack 1.015 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Rosenborg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Rosenborg kick off?
Brann vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Brann 2 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Brann vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Rosenborg part of?
Brann vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 25% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brann and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in?
Brann (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.80) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.01x) against Brann's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
25%
3.99
31%
3.24
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Brann xG
Total xG
2.54
1.47
Rosenborg xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.41
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Brann and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Brann and 1.47 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 17D 25L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.71 PPG from 55 outings (27W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Brann — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.30 points per game from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.82 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 13W 17D 25L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 13D 15L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.11 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
3
Draws
1
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Rosenborg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Rosenborg 1-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Rosenborg?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Brann, 56% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Brann) and 59% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Brann's games and 56% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Brann's matches and 59% of Rosenborg's.
Do Brann and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Brann and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.07 xG and Rosenborg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 25% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 44%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 56%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.