Haugesund 2-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 54% versus Bodo/Glimt 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 64% | Bodo/Glimt 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.23 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.130 / defence 0.921 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.313 / defence 0.598. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.211. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.598 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Haugesund games / 55 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 29% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 40%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Bodo/Glimt 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 29% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Haugesund 1.23 / Bodo/Glimt 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.130 / def 0.921 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.313 / def 0.598 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Bodo/Glimt xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Haugesund 2 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 29% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.13x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.29
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.69
1.47
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.78
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.47 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 11D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.45 PPG from 55 outings (42W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.16 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 14W 5D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.22 points per game from 27 outings (18W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.78 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 20W 11D 24L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 42W 9D 4L in their last 55 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.74 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 48%, Bodo/Glimt 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Haugesund and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Haugesund's games and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Haugesund's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.23 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.47 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.31 / defence 0.60, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 29% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 40%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 64%, Bodo/Glimt 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.