Viking 3-0 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 77% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs jerv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
jerv make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 16 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking at SR-Bank Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
jerv have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Eliteserien outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. jerv have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Viking's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of jerv's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Viking register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, jerv in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.36 xG and jerv 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.206 / defence 0.746 | jerv attack 0.668 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.163. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Viking's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Viking games / 5 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 77% | Draw 15% | jerv 7%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | jerv 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Viking (77%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 40% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 5.8 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 77% | Draw 15% | jerv 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 40% | xG Viking 2.36 / jerv 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.206 / def 0.746 | jerv attack 0.668 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Viking (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.58
jerv xG
40%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs jerv kick off?
Viking vs jerv kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 16 May 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs jerv?
Viking 3 - 0 jerv.
Where is Viking vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs jerv part of?
Viking vs jerv is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 77% chance of winning, jerv a 7% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Viking and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and jerv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and jerv in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. jerv (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Viking's attack rating (1.21) and jerv's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — jerv's attack (0.67x) against Viking's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 37/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
77%
1.29
15%
6.49
7%
13.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
3 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Viking xG
Total xG
2.94
0.58
jerv xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.49
15%
Draw
13.61
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
9%
10.58
Win to Nil
43%
2.31
1%
143.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Viking and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Viking and 0.58 for jerv, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Viking, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, jerv sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for jerv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of jerv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 4.00 scored and 4.00 conceded. jerv's attacking output running into Viking's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; jerv in 100%.
Defensively: Viking have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Early Season
jerv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and jerv in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while jerv have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Viking or jerv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, jerv in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Viking
1
Draws
0
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Viking have won 1, jerv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when jerv 2-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and jerv?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play jerv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Viking's recent matches and 100% of jerv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Viking vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Viking's recent games and 100% of jerv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Viking and jerv tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, jerv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 3-0 hammering of jerv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat jerv 3-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.36 xG and jerv 0.58 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.21 / defence 0.75 against jerv attack 0.67 / defence 1.26, drawn from 37/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 77% | Draw 15% | jerv 7%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 0%, jerv 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Viking scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. jerv managed 0 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 3 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.