Rosenborg 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Haugesund travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 June 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rosenborg 1.40 PPG, Haugesund 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 53% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 63% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.04 xG and Haugesund 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.299 / defence 1.137 | Haugesund attack 0.823 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.179. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Rosenborg games / 37 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 19%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Rosenborg 2.04 / Haugesund 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.299 / def 1.137 | Haugesund attack 0.823 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Haugesund xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Haugesund kick off?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Rosenborg 0 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Rosenborg vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Haugesund part of?
Rosenborg vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 58% chance of winning, Haugesund a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rosenborg and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.30) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.28
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.14
1.10
Haugesund xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
2%
40.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.10 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 7D 8L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rosenborg's home form reads 10W 3D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Haugesund away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Rosenborg
3
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 6, Haugesund have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Haugesund?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 67%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 60% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Rosenborg and Haugesund tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Rosenborg and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.04 xG and Haugesund 1.10 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.30 / defence 1.14 against Haugesund attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 19%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.