Haugesund vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Brann travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 July 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 6W 2D 2L at Haugesund Stadion — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Haugesund Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Haugesund are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Haugesund, 1 for Brann and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 1–0 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Brann trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 48% versus Brann 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 58% | Brann 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.24 xG and Brann 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.130 / defence 0.759 | Brann attack 0.866 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.116. Haugesund's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Haugesund games / 43 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 70% | Draw 21% | Brann 9%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.43 | Draw 4.76 | Brann 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 30% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 70% | Draw 21% | Brann 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 48% | xG Haugesund 2.24 / Brann 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.130 / def 0.759 | Brann attack 0.866 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Brann xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Brann kick off?
Haugesund vs Brann kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Brann part of?
Haugesund vs Brann is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 70% chance of winning, Brann a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Haugesund and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 0 | Brann 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Brann in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Brann (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (1.13) and Brann's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 3-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
70%
1.43
21%
4.85
9%
10.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.97
0.73
Brann xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
10.83
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
1%
101.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.73 for Brann, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 9D 16L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 8W 11D 21L from 40 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Haugesund are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
On the road, Brann have gone 4W 4D 12L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.12 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Brann in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Brann have gone 8W 11D 21L in their last 40 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Brann away?
Haugesund's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.70 PPG; Brann away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Brann in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Brann have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 45%, Brann 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Haugesund) and 50% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Brann in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Haugesund's recent matches and 50% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 50% of Brann's.
Do Haugesund and Brann tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Brann in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Brann finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.24 xG and Brann 0.73 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.13 / defence 0.76 against Brann attack 0.87 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 70% | Draw 21% | Brann 9%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 58%, Brann 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.