Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund encounter.

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Match Analysis

Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 18 September 2022 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Haugesund and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2022, ended Bodo/Glimt 4–1 Haugesund — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 56% versus Haugesund 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 58% | Haugesund 64%). Note also that Haugesund surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.32 xG and Haugesund 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.428 / defence 1.038 | Haugesund attack 0.876 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.367. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.428 — their 2.32 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 52 games and Haugesund's last 52.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 61% | Draw 19% | Haugesund 19%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.63 | Draw 5.21 | Haugesund 5.16. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.32 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 50% (last 10 away games).

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