Haugesund 1-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Sparebank Arena plays host to Haugesund versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Haugesund, 1.00 for Kristiansund BK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Haugesund are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Haugesund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Haugesund and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 53% versus Kristiansund BK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 53% | Kristiansund BK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.32 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.807 / defence 1.171 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.962 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.385. Kristiansund BK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Haugesund games / 7 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 32% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 43%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Kristiansund BK 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Kristiansund BK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 32% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Haugesund 1.32 / Kristiansund BK 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.807 / def 1.171 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.962 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Kristiansund BK xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Haugesund 1 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 32% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haugesund and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
Record (6 meetings): Haugesund 4W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.96x) against Haugesund's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
32%
3.10
25%
4.05
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.88
1.56
Kristiansund BK xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.56 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 8D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 0.81 PPG from 32 outings (6W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Haugesund against 0.81 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 0.56 points per game from 16 outings (2W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.22 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Haugesund's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 3-0 on 20 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Haugesund
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 62%, Kristiansund BK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Haugesund) and 50% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Haugesund's games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Haugesund's recent games and 50% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Kristiansund BK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Kristiansund BK 1-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.32 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.56 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 32% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 43%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 53%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.09 PPG, Kristiansund BK 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.