Ham-Kam 2-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Haugesund travel to Briskeby Arena to take on Ham-Kam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ham-Kam, 2 for Haugesund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 57% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 57% | Haugesund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 0.84 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.760 / defence 0.959 | Haugesund attack 0.893 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.363. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Ham-Kam games / 36 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 26% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 43%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Haugesund 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 26% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ham-Kam 0.84 / Haugesund 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.760 / def 0.959 | Haugesund attack 0.893 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Haugesund xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Haugesund kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Ham-Kam 2 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund part of?
Ham-Kam vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 26% chance of winning, Haugesund a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ham-Kam and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
Record (4 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Haugesund in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.76) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
26%
3.81
30%
3.31
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.00
1.17
Haugesund xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.17 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 16W 17D 27L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 27L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.08 PPG, Haugesund on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 10W 9D 11L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 6W 8D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Haugesund away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.30 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Haugesund runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Ham-Kam won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 4, Haugesund have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Ham-Kam 5-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 47%, Haugesund 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 50% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 33% of games; Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 47% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 50% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Haugesund tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Haugesund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Haugesund finished level at 2-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 0.84 xG and Haugesund 1.17 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.76 / defence 0.96 against Haugesund attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 26% | Draw 30% | Haugesund 43%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 57%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.08 PPG, Haugesund 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.