Kristiansund BK 2-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 9 as Kristiansund BK welcome Brann to Nordmøre stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kristiansund BK have played only a handful of Eliteserien games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kristiansund BK's home record at Nordmøre stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kristiansund BK are significantly better at Nordmøre stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brann stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brann away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Brann's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kristiansund BK, 1 for Brann and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brann in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 60% versus Brann 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 60% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 0.98 xG and Brann 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.920 / defence 1.048 | Brann attack 0.940 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.521. Data: 8 Kristiansund BK games / 39 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 25% | Draw 26% | Brann 49%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 2.04. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kristiansund BK 70% | Brann 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Nordmøre stadion • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 25% | Draw 26% | Brann 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Kristiansund BK 0.98 / Brann 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.920 / def 1.048 | Brann attack 0.940 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Brann (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Brann xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Brann kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Nordmøre stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Kristiansund BK 2 - 2 Brann.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Nordmøre stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Brann part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Brann is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 25% chance of winning, Brann a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Brann?
Record (4 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 2 | Brann 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Brann in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
25%
4.02
26%
3.84
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.48
1.50
Brann xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
6%
17.98
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.50 for Brann, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 6W 8D 16L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Brann's form line: 19W 4D 7L from 30 games, 2.03 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kristiansund BK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Brann have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Brann in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 16L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.13 PPG; Brann away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Brann in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Brann specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Brann?
From 9 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Brann have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kristiansund BK 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 67%, Brann 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kristiansund BK) and 47% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 33%; Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kristiansund BK's games and 47% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 47% of Brann's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Brann tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Brann in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kristiansund BK and Brann share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK and Brann finished level at 2-2 at Nordmøre stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 0.98 xG and Brann 1.50 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Brann attack 0.94 / defence 0.81, drawn from 8/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 25% | Draw 26% | Brann 49%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 60%, Brann 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.