Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tromso (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 0.60 PPG lead over Tromso (2.50 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bodo/Glimt lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Tromso winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 65% and Tromso 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Tromso 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.33 xG and Tromso 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.004 / defence 0.718 | Tromso attack 0.870 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.385. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Bodo/Glimt games / 36 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 48% | Draw 28% | Tromso 24%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Tromso 4.17. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Tromso 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 48% | Draw 28% | Tromso 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.33 / Tromso 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.004 / def 0.718 | Tromso attack 0.870 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Tromso xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 0 Tromso.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 48% chance of winning, Tromso a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Record (5 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 1 | Tromso 2W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Tromso (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.00x the league average against Tromso's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.87x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.56
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.20
0.86
Tromso xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.86 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 60 games, going 40W 10D 10L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 1.73 PPG from 60 outings (29W 17D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 20W 8D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.57 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Tromso in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 10D 10L in their last 60 games (2.17 PPG), while Tromso have gone 29W 17D 14L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Tromso away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.27 PPG; Tromso away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Tromso in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
3
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Tromso have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Bodo/Glimt, 70% for Tromso — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bodo/Glimt and 57% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 70% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 57% of Tromso's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Tromso tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Tromso in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Tromso.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Tromso 4-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.33 xG and Tromso 0.86 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tromso landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.00 / defence 0.72 against Tromso attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 48% | Draw 28% | Tromso 24%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 72%, Tromso 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.