ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Molde – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Molde at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Molde at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Molde away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — ODD Ballklubb at 1.20 PPG versus Molde's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Molde in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Molde have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for ODD Ballklubb.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Molde in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 55% versus Molde 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 55% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.48 xG and Molde 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.118 / defence 1.249 | Molde attack 0.982 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.385. Data: 38 ODD Ballklubb games / 38 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 23% | Molde 43%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Molde 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Molde 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 23% | Molde 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.48 / Molde 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.118 / def 1.249 | Molde attack 0.982 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Molde (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Molde xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
ODD Ballklubb 0 - 4 Molde.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 34% chance of winning, Molde a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Record (9 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 2W | Draws 0 | Molde 7W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Molde (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.12) and Molde's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
34%
2.98
23%
4.28
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.17
1.70
Molde xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
6%
16.28
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.70 for Molde, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 23W 14D 23L from 60 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 40W 9D 11L across 60 games — 2.15 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 15W 5D 10L from 30 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 19W 5D 6L across 30 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 60%.
Defensively: Molde in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Molde have gone 40W 9D 11L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.67 PPG; Molde away: 2.07 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Molde in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Molde specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
8
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Molde have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Molde.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 57%, Molde 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for ODD Ballklubb and 67% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 63% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 67% of Molde's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Molde tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-4 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat ODD Ballklubb 0-4 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.48 xG and Molde 1.70 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.12 / defence 1.25 against Molde attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 34% | Draw 23% | Molde 43%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 55%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.