Rosenborg 1-3 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.11 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.040 / defence 0.911 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.861 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.385. Data: 37 Rosenborg games / 7 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 36% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 35%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | KFUM Oslo 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 36% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Rosenborg 1.11 / KFUM Oslo 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.040 / def 0.911 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.861 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
KFUM Oslo xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Rosenborg 1 - 3 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 36% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Rosenborg home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.04x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.86x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.43
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.20
1.09
KFUM Oslo xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.09 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
KFUM Oslo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KFUM Oslo won 4-1 on 3 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 0, KFUM Oslo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when KFUM Oslo 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KFUM Oslo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo beat Rosenborg 1-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.11 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. KFUM Oslo outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 36% | Draw 29% | KFUM Oslo 35%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual KFUM Oslo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.