Rosenborg vs Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Lillestrom meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.70 for Lillestrom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2021, ended 0–2 with Lillestrom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 60% and Lillestrom 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 60% | Lillestrom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.90 xG and Lillestrom 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.069 / defence 0.977 | Lillestrom attack 0.931 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.116. Data: 43 Rosenborg games / 10 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 56% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 18%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Lillestrom 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 56% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 1.90 / Lillestrom 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.069 / def 0.977 | Lillestrom attack 0.931 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lillestrom xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kick off?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom part of?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 56% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.93x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 43/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
56%
1.78
26%
3.87
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.91
1.02
Lillestrom xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
3%
36.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.02 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.70 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lillestrom's season.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.40 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Lillestrom away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.40 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 40%, Lillestrom 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rosenborg) and 60% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rosenborg have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Rosenborg's games and 80% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rosenborg's recent games and 60% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Rosenborg and Lillestrom drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.90 xG and Lillestrom 1.02 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Lillestrom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Lillestrom attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 56% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 18%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 60%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.40 PPG, Lillestrom 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.