Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Sandefjord are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Stromsgodset 1W, Sandefjord 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 4–0 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 62% versus Sandefjord 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 62% | Sandefjord 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.11 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.139 / defence 0.906 | Sandefjord attack 1.048 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.116. Data: 41 Stromsgodset games / 40 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 17%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandefjord (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | Sandefjord 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Stromsgodset 2.11 / Sandefjord 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.139 / def 0.906 | Sandefjord attack 1.048 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sandefjord xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 60% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (1.05x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.22
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.17
1.06
Sandefjord xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
49.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.06 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 13D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (14W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.25 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stromsgodset's home form reads 5W 8D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (8W 1D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.12 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sandefjord in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 10W 13D 17L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sandefjord away?
Sandefjord's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.21 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 68%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Stromsgodset and 58% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 32%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Stromsgodset's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Stromsgodset's matches and 58% of Sandefjord's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Sandefjord finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.11 xG and Sandefjord 1.06 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Sandefjord attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 17%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Sandefjord 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sandefjord's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.08 PPG, Sandefjord 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.