Brann 1-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 July 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Brann against 0.90 for Tromso. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 46% versus Tromso 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 64% | Tromso 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.51 xG and Tromso 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.870 / defence 1.259 | Tromso attack 0.795 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.116. Data: 42 Brann games / 11 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 44% | Draw 29% | Tromso 26%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Tromso 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Brann 80% | Tromso 17%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 44% | Draw 29% | Tromso 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Brann 1.51 / Tromso 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.870 / def 1.259 | Tromso attack 0.795 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Brann (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Tromso xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Tromso kick off?
Brann vs Tromso kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Tromso?
Brann 1 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Brann vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Tromso part of?
Brann vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 44% chance of winning, Tromso a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Brann and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Tromso in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Tromso (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.87) and Tromso's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.80x) against Brann's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 42/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.40
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Brann xG
Total xG
2.63
1.12
Tromso xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Brann and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Brann and 1.12 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brann's recent record stands at 1W 2D 8L from 11 games, a 0.45 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 6L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.45 PPG for Brann against 0.82 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brann have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tromso's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.82 PPG overall record — Tromso travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tromso come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 0.91 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Tromso in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 games (0.45 PPG), while Tromso have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 0.80 PPG; Tromso away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 0-5 on 29 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
2
Draws
2
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Tromso have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Tromso 0-5 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Tromso?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 60%, Tromso 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Brann and 60% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso in 40%; Tromso in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Brann's recent matches and 20% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Brann's matches and 60% of Tromso's.
Do Brann and Tromso tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Tromso in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Tromso share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Tromso finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.51 xG and Tromso 1.12 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against Tromso attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 44% | Draw 29% | Tromso 26%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 64%, Tromso 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 0.45 PPG, Tromso 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.