Ham-Kam 0-3 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Haugesund travel to Briskeby Arena to take on Ham-Kam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Haugesund — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ham-Kam 1.40 PPG, Haugesund 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ham-Kam, 1 for Haugesund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 2–3 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 61% and Haugesund 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 59% | Haugesund 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.35 xG and Haugesund 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.944 / defence 1.082 | Haugesund attack 0.706 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.303. Haugesund's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Ham-Kam games / 54 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 45% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 28%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Haugesund 3.57. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 50% | Haugesund 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 45% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Ham-Kam 1.35 / Haugesund 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.944 / def 1.082 | Haugesund attack 0.706 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Haugesund xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Haugesund kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Ham-Kam 0 - 3 Haugesund.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund part of?
Ham-Kam vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 45% chance of winning, Haugesund a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ham-Kam and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Haugesund in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Haugesund (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.94) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.64
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.35
1.00
Haugesund xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.00 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 14W 16D 24L from 54 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 24L across 54 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.07 PPG, Haugesund on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 9W 9D 9L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 5W 8D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.17 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 14W 16D 24L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Haugesund away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.33 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Haugesund runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Ham-Kam won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 4, Haugesund have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Ham-Kam 5-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 52%, Haugesund 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ham-Kam) and 48% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 30% of games; Haugesund in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 48% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 48% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Haugesund tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haugesund run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Ham-Kam 0-3 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.35 xG and Haugesund 1.00 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Haugesund outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Haugesund attack 0.71 / defence 0.80, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 45% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 28%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 59%, Haugesund 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.07 PPG, Haugesund 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.