Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Rosenborg face Stabaek.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rosenborg's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Stabaek (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Rosenborg's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Rosenborg, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Stabaek — Stabaek have 0 wins, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Jun 2023, ended Rosenborg 2–2 Stabaek — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Rosenborg and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Stabaek — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 54% versus Stabaek 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 62% | Stabaek 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.14 xG and Stabaek 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.004 / defence 0.931 | Stabaek attack 0.729 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.303. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 54 games and Stabaek's last 24.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 66% | Draw 19% | Stabaek 14%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.51 | Draw 5.15 | Stabaek 6.96. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (66%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 50% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 25 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 66% | Draw 19% | Stabaek 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Rosenborg 2.14 / Stabaek 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.004 / def 0.931 | Stabaek attack 0.729 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stabaek xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Stabaek kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Rosenborg 1 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stabaek part of?
Rosenborg vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 25) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 66% chance of winning, Stabaek a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rosenborg and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rosenborg vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.00x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.73x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 54 games and Stabaek's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.15
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.03
0.88
Stabaek xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
59.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.88 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 8W 5D 11L from 24 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 13L across 24 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Rosenborg against 0.96 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 5W 2D 4L from their last 11 home games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across their last 11 away games, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stabaek's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
Rosenborg (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Rosenborg vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stabaek away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.55 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won Stabaek 0-3 Rosenborg on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
3
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 3, Stabaek have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2023: Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 54%, Stabaek 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Rosenborg and 73% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Stabaek matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Rosenborg's games and 64% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rosenborg and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Rosenborg's matches and 73% of Stabaek's.
Do Rosenborg and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 82% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg and Stabaek share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Rosenborg and Stabaek drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.14 xG and Stabaek 0.88 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Stabaek attack 0.73 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 66% | Draw 19% | Stabaek 14%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 62%, Stabaek 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.21 PPG, Stabaek 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.