Sandefjord 0-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sandefjord welcome Ham-Kam to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Jotun Arena this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.40 (Ham-Kam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandefjord register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ham-Kam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ham-Kam, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Sandefjord.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Ham-Kam winning.
It is worth noting that Ham-Kam have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 62% and Ham-Kam 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 76% | Ham-Kam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.71 xG and Ham-Kam 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.045 / defence 1.014 | Ham-Kam attack 1.061 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.276. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Sandefjord games / 53 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 65% | Draw 18% | Ham-Kam 17%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Ham-Kam 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sandefjord (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.71 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.08 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Ham-Kam 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 65% | Draw 18% | Ham-Kam 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 70% | xG Sandefjord 2.71 / Ham-Kam 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.045 / def 1.014 | Ham-Kam attack 1.061 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
70%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Sandefjord 0 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 65% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sandefjord and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Record (3 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.71. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.65
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
4.08
1.37
Ham-Kam xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.65
18%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
7%
15.00
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
1%
88.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.37 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 11W 12D 30L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 13W 16D 24L from 53 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 0.85 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (6W 10D 10L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 7D 15L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.25 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 11W 12D 30L in their last 53 games (0.85 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 13W 16D 24L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Ham-Kam away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.08 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2022, when Ham-Kam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
2
Draws
6
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sandefjord 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 73%, Ham-Kam at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Sandefjord and 73% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sandefjord's games and 73% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Sandefjord's matches and 73% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Sandefjord and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Sandefjord 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sandefjord 0-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.71 xG and Ham-Kam 1.37 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandefjord fell 2.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Ham-Kam attack 1.06 / defence 1.44, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 65% | Draw 18% | Ham-Kam 17%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Ham-Kam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 76%, Ham-Kam 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 0.85 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.