Aalesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aalesund face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sarpsborg 08 FF, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 52% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 61% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.27 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.668 / defence 1.085 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.039 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.303. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Aalesund games / 54 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Aalesund 1.27 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.668 / def 1.085 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.039 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Aalesund 3 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 33% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (5 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W.
What form are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Aalesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 0.67x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.04x) against Aalesund's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
33%
3.06
25%
3.92
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.74
1.47
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.47 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Aalesund have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 12D 28L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 23W 9D 22L from 54 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aalesund.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 1.30 PPG from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 10W 5D 12L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aalesund are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.91 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 69%.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 23W 9D 22L in their last 54 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Aalesund's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.30 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 2 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Aalesund
0
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Aalesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Aalesund) and 67% (Sarpsborg 08 FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Aalesund's games and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Aalesund's matches and 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.27 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.47 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Aalesund beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.67 / defence 1.08 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 33% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 42%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Aalesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 61%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Aalesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aalesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.