Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Haugesund welcome Aalesund to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 4W 1D 5L at Haugesund Sparebank Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 0.90 PPG, Aalesund 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Haugesund, 1 for Aalesund and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Aalesund in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 58% versus Aalesund 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 54% | Aalesund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.89 xG and Aalesund 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.748 / defence 1.014 | Aalesund attack 0.807 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.808 / away 1.358. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Haugesund games / 55 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 55% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Aalesund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Aalesund 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 55% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Haugesund 1.89 / Aalesund 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.748 / def 1.014 | Aalesund attack 0.807 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.808 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Aalesund xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Aalesund kick off?
Haugesund vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Haugesund 6 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Haugesund vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Aalesund part of?
Haugesund vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 55% chance of winning, Aalesund a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Haugesund and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Aalesund?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 2 | Aalesund 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Aalesund in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Aalesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
55%
1.80
22%
4.46
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.00
1.11
Aalesund xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
29.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.11 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund's recent record stands at 17W 14D 24L from 55 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 28L across 55 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.18 PPG, Aalesund on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 11W 6D 10L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aalesund's away record stands at 5W 4D 18L across 27 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.96 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Aalesund away?
Haugesund's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.44 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Aalesund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Haugesund won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Haugesund
2
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Aalesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Aalesund have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Aalesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 70%, Aalesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Haugesund and 74% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Aalesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Haugesund's games and 52% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Haugesund's matches and 74% of Aalesund's.
Do Haugesund and Aalesund tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haugesund run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Aalesund 6-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.89 xG and Aalesund 1.11 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Aalesund attack 0.81 / defence 1.39, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 55% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 22%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 54%, Aalesund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.18 PPG, Aalesund 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.