Stromsgodset 3-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, ODD Ballklubb are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, ODD Ballklubb in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Stromsgodset, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against ODD Ballklubb — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Stromsgodset a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 50% versus ODD Ballklubb 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 56% | ODD Ballklubb 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.66 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.862 / defence 1.018 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.018 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.303. Data: 54 Stromsgodset games / 54 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 45% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 31%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | ODD Ballklubb 3.23. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Stromsgodset dominate the H2H record, yet ODD Ballklubb are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 45% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Stromsgodset 1.66 / ODD Ballklubb 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.862 / def 1.018 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.018 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.35
ODD Ballklubb xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset 3 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 45% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (7 meetings): Stromsgodset 4W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.86x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (1.02x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.17
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.01
1.35
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.35 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 17W 9D 28L from 54 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 21W 13D 20L across 54 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.41 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 12W 3D 11L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 8W 8D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.33 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 17W 9D 28L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 20L in their last 54 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.50 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 62%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Stromsgodset and 54% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 35%; ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Stromsgodset's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Stromsgodset's matches and 54% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat ODD Ballklubb 3-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.66 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.35 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 45% | Draw 24% | ODD Ballklubb 31%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 56%, ODD Ballklubb 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.11 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.