Brann 1-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brann face Stabaek.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brann Stadion plays host to Brann versus Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Brann (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Brann have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stabaek have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Brann, 1.10 for Stabaek — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Brann's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Brann's games and 80% of Stabaek's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2021, ended Brann 0–2 Stabaek — a Stabaek win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 72% and Stabaek 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 59% | Stabaek 61%). Note also that Stabaek surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Brann recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.92 xG and Stabaek 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.961 / defence 1.207 | Stabaek attack 1.199 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.782 / away 1.275. Brann's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stabaek's projected output up. Data: built from Brann's last 51 games and Stabaek's last 51.
Result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Stabaek 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 80% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 22 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG Brann 1.92 / Stabaek 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.961 / def 1.207 | Stabaek attack 1.199 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.782 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Brann (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Stabaek xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brann vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does Brann vs Stabaek kick off?
Brann vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Stabaek?
Brann 1 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Brann vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Stabaek part of?
Brann vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 22) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 39% chance of winning, Stabaek a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Brann and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brann vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.96x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.20x) against Brann's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from Brann's last 51 games and Stabaek's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.00
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Brann xG
Total xG
3.77
1.84
Stabaek xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.80
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
6%
16.21
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brann vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Brann and 1.84 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann's recent record stands at 13W 15D 23L from 51 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 21L across 51 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Brann against 1.10 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brann have managed 7W 8D 10L from their last 25 home games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.31 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
Brann (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brann
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Brann vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are Brann and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 13W 15D 23L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 13W 17D 21L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Stabaek away?
Brann's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.16 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2020 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 17 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Brann have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won Brann 4-1 Stabaek on 16 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Brann
2
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Brann vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Stabaek?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Brann have won 3, Stabaek have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 September 2023: Stabaek 0-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Stabaek?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 84% for Brann, 68% for Stabaek — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Brann and 76% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brann vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brann and Stabaek matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Brann's games and 68% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brann and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Brann's matches and 76% of Stabaek's.
Do Brann and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Brann's recent matches and 84% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Stabaek share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Stabaek finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.92 xG and Stabaek 1.84 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brann fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Stabaek attack 1.20 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 39% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 36%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 59%, Stabaek 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Stabaek's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.06 PPG, Stabaek 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.