Brann 4-4 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs jerv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to Brann versus jerv in Eliteserien, Final. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Intility Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.63 xG and jerv 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.828 / defence 1.087 | jerv attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.272. Data: 60 Brann games / 0 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 45% | Draw 30% | jerv 25%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | jerv 4.00. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Final | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 45% | Draw 30% | jerv 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Brann 1.63 / jerv 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.828 / def 1.087 | jerv attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Brann (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.18
jerv xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs jerv kick off?
Brann vs jerv kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Brann vs jerv?
Brann 4 - 4 jerv.
Where is Brann vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Brann vs jerv part of?
Brann vs jerv is a Final fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 45% chance of winning, jerv a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Brann and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and jerv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and jerv in?
Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Brann home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.83) and jerv's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — jerv's attack (0.85x) against Brann's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.31
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Brann xG
Total xG
2.80
1.18
jerv xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
5%
20.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Brann and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Brann and 1.18 for jerv, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs jerv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
jerv
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Brann
1
Draws
0
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and jerv?
From 1 meetings on record, Brann have won 0, jerv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2021, when Brann 4-4 jerv.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Brann and jerv share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Intility Arena, Final, as Brann and jerv drew 4-4 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.63 xG and jerv 1.18 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. jerv outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against jerv attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 45% | Draw 30% | jerv 25%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.