Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Kristiansund BK.

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Fixture Analysis

Bodo/Glimt welcome Kristiansund BK to Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 22 August 2021 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Bodo/Glimt at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Bodo/Glimt) versus 1.70 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Kristiansund BK and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2021, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–0 Kristiansund BK — a Bodo/Glimt win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.

Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 62% and Kristiansund BK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 76% | Kristiansund BK 58%). Note also that Kristiansund BK surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.12 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.301 / defence 0.952 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.818 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.825 / away 1.234. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.301 — their 2.12 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 45 games and Kristiansund BK's last 45.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 62% | Draw 24% | Kristiansund BK 14%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.62 | Draw 4.11 | Kristiansund BK 7.19. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 50% (last 10 away games).

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