Tromso 2-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Alfheim Stadion to face Tromso in Eliteserien (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Tromso have posted 0W 3D 4L from their last 7 home games — 0.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.43 lags behind their overall 1.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.80 PPG clear of Tromso over their recent games (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 56% versus Bodo/Glimt 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 56% | Bodo/Glimt 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 0.91 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 0.673 / defence 1.292 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.015 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.247. Tromso's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.748, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Tromso's projected output down. Tromso's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Tromso's last 16 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 46.
Result probabilities: Tromso 18% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 51%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 5.55 | Draw 3.28 | Bodo/Glimt 1.94. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 71% (last 7 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 17 | Venue: Alfheim Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 18% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Tromso 0.91 / Bodo/Glimt 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 0.673 / def 1.292 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.015 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Bodo/Glimt xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Alfheim Stadion.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Tromso 2 - 3 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Alfheim Stadion.
What competition is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 17) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 18% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Tromso and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tromso's attack at 0.67x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.01x) against Tromso's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 16 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
18%
5.55
30%
3.28
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.55
1.64
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.55
18%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
4%
28.45
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Tromso and 1.64 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 6D 7L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tromso's home form reads 0W 3D 4L across their last 7 home games, a 0.43 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.94 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 1.57 points per game from their last 7 away games (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.06 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Tromso (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 0.43 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Tromso or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tromso
3
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Tromso 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 71%, Bodo/Glimt 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Tromso) and 29% (Bodo/Glimt).
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 29% of games; Bodo/Glimt in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Tromso's games and 43% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Tromso's recent games and 29% of Bodo/Glimt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Tromso's recent matches and 43% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Tromso 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Tromso 2-3 at Alfheim Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 0.91 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.64 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 0.67 / defence 1.29 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 18% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 51%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 56%, Bodo/Glimt 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.