Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brann have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Brann have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.00 PPG lead over Brann (1.90 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Brann's last 10 away games) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Brann in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2021, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–2 Brann — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Brann — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 68% and Brann 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 74% | Brann 61%). Note also that Brann surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.54 xG and Brann 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.362 / defence 0.958 | Brann attack 0.733 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 0.991. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.362 — their 2.54 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Brann's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 33 games and Brann's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 76% | Draw 16% | Brann 7%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.31 | Draw 6.11 | Brann 13.97. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (76%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Brann's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 home games) | Brann 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Bodo/Glimt 33 games, Brann 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 4 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 76% | Draw 16% | Brann 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.54 / Brann 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.362 / def 0.958 | Brann attack 0.733 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.614 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Brann xG
47%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Brann FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 Brann.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Brann part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Brann is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 4) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 76% chance of winning, Brann a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Brann will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.36) and Brann's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.73x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 33 games and Brann's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
76%
1.31
16%
6.11
7%
13.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.24
0.70
Brann xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.11
16%
Draw
13.97
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
8%
12.69
Win to Nil
38%
2.62
1%
177.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Brann Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.70 for Brann, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 19W 6D 6L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 5W 12D 14L from 31 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 15 home games (8W 6D 1L).
On the road, Brann have gone 1W 6D 8L from their last 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.87 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.35 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Brann in 71%.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Brann
Pre-Season
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Brann (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Brann
Pre-Season
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Brann Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Brann in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 19W 6D 6L in their last 31 games (2.03 PPG), while Brann have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Brann away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.00 PPG; Brann away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 5-1 Brann on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Brann H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, Brann have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Brann last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Brann 2-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Brann?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Bodo/Glimt, 67% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Brann Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Brann matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 67% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Brann matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Brann's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Brann matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 87% of Brann's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Brann share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt and Brann finished level at 2-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.54 xG and Brann 0.70 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Brann outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.36 / defence 0.96 against Brann attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 76% | Draw 16% | Brann 7%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 74%, Brann 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.